Mental Outlaw Questions China’s Quantum Breakthrough, Highlights RSA Encryption Security Challenges
Recent claims from researchers at Shanghai University about breaking RSA encryption with quantum computing have raised concerns. However, popular tech YouTuber Mental Outlaw has cast doubts on the significance of this breakthrough, citing that it does not yet pose a threat to modern encryption standards widely used in sectors like banking, military, and cryptocurrency.
The Chinese research paper detailed how their quantum computer factorized the integer 2,269,753, breaking a 22-bit key, a significant achievement in the quantum computing realm. Still, this is far from impacting modern encryption protocols. Mental Outlaw compared this to classical computers, which have already successfully broken much larger 892-bit keys.
For context, early RSA encryption methods used 512-bit keys, but today’s standards require 2048-bit to 4096-bit keys. Current quantum computing advancements are far from breaking these larger keys. Mental Outlaw explained that scaling quantum computing is not straightforward; combining quantum computers to increase processing power is not feasible, further limiting their threat to encryption.
Additionally, maintaining quantum bits (qubits) requires a highly controlled environment near absolute zero, making widespread implementation a complex and expensive task. A large portion of quantum computing resources is also devoted to error correction, leaving only a small fraction of their capability for practical problem-solving.
While the current quantum technology may not threaten encryption, Mental Outlaw warned that future advancements could change that. In anticipation of such risks, major companies like HSBC, IBM, Microsoft, and Apple are working on quantum-resistant encryption. Apple made iMessage quantum-resistant in early 2024, reflecting industry efforts to safeguard against future quantum threats.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, proposed a proactive approach to deal with quantum risks in cryptocurrency. He suggested blockchain networks implement hard forks, requiring users to download new wallet software for protection. This infrastructure could be developed in advance to secure user funds before quantum computing becomes capable of breaking existing encryption.
While a 2017 study estimated that quantum computers could break elliptic curve signature schemes used by Bitcoin by 2027, experts believe quantum machines need to reach thousands or even millions of qubits to achieve this. Currently, the most advanced quantum computers have only around 1000 qubits, indicating that modern encryption remains safe for now.
