Trump Leads Harris by 10 Points in 2024 Presidential Race According to Polymarket Data

Trump Leads Harris by 10 Points in 2024 Presidential Race According to Polymarket Data

Former President Donald Trump currently holds a 10-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race, according to data from the Polymarket prediction platform. This represents a significant shift from earlier betting odds in September when Harris was the favored candidate. The most recent Polymarket figures place Trump with a 55% likelihood of winning the presidency in November, while Harris stands at 45%.

Trump Surges in Key Swing States

Trump’s growing momentum extends to crucial swing states, where he now leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The widest margins favoring Trump are seen in Arizona and Georgia, both essential battlegrounds for the 2024 election. This recent surge marks a shift in favor of the GOP candidate, stirring discussions about the potential trajectory of the campaign.

Analyst Jim Cramer Offers a Contrasting View

Despite Trump’s rise in prediction markets, financial analyst Jim Cramer has predicted that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 race. During an October 11 broadcast, Cramer stated, “I don’t see how Donald Trump wins.” His comments sparked debate on social media, particularly among cryptocurrency traders who frequently reference the ‘inverse Cramer effect’—a belief that the opposite of Cramer’s predictions tends to materialize.

Trump’s Cryptocurrency Connections Gain Attention

Trump’s increasing popularity on Polymarket coincides with his vocal support for the cryptocurrency sector. In September, Trump made headlines when he used Bitcoin to buy burgers at a New York campaign event, which appeared to be an effort to attract crypto enthusiasts. Additionally, Trump’s campaign recently introduced World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance (DeFi) project with its own native token.

However, reactions to Trump’s embrace of crypto have been mixed. Journalist Nic Carter cautioned that the DeFi project could expose Trump’s campaign to cybersecurity risks, making it a potential target for hackers. On the other hand, crypto expert Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, dismissed concerns over the election’s impact on cryptocurrency prices, forecasting that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 regardless of who wins the 2024 election.

Polymarket Profitability Remains Limited for Most Users

Despite the buzz surrounding Polymarket, most users on the platform have struggled to make significant profits. Of the 171,113 active crypto wallets on Polymarket, only 12.7%, or 21,730 wallets, turned a profit. Among these, a small number—approximately 2,138 wallets—earned over $1,000, while most profits ranged between $100 and $1,000.

In a major move, Bloomberg LP, a leading financial data provider, announced it would integrate Polymarket’s election odds data into its Terminal, bringing real-time election prediction market insights to a broader audience. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market operating on the Polygon network, has become a notable platform for forecasting election outcomes using transparent, on-chain data and smart contracts.