Polymarket Bettors Anticipate No Prison Time for Caroline Ellison Ahead of Sentencing
Bettors on Polymarket are predicting that Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research, will receive no prison time for her involvement in the FTX scandal as her sentencing approaches on September 24. As of Monday afternoon, 43% of bettors believe that Ellison, who was once romantically linked to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, will avoid jail.
The poll reveals that 19% predict she will be sentenced to 1-11 months, while 28% expect a sentence of 12-23 months. Ellison pleaded guilty in December 2022 to charges of fraud and money laundering for her role in Bankman-Fried’s extensive digital asset scheme, which misappropriated $8 billion of investor funds.
As part of her cooperation agreement with U.S. authorities, Ellison served as the prosecution's key witness in Bankman-Fried's fraud trial, which culminated in a 25-year prison sentence for him and a forfeiture of over $11 billion.
Bankman-Fried attempted to undermine Ellison's credibility by leaking excerpts of her private diary to The New York Times, which detailed her emotional turmoil leading up to FTX's collapse in November 2022. This led to the revocation of his bail prior to his trial.
The U.S. government has recently submitted a letter recommending a lenient sentence for Ellison, citing the extreme scrutiny and harassment she has faced as a cooperating witness. “The government cannot think of another cooperating witness in recent history who has received a greater level of attention and harassment,” U.S. prosecutors noted in a September 17 letter, arguing that the professional consequences of her notoriety are likely to persist.
In contrast, Ryan Salame, the former CEO of FTX Digital Markets, who did not cooperate with federal prosecutors, was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison after pleading guilty to charges this past spring. He has since sought to retract his guilty plea, claiming an agreement with prosecutors that he would not face investigation if he cooperated.
Additionally, former FTX CTO Gary Wang and director of engineering Nishad Singh are also awaiting sentencing.
